End of the political season

Политобоз

End of the political season

Who lives in fear, dies of fear.(Leonardo da Vinci)

Belarus is celebrationing. Republic is singing and dancing. The authorities carefully create the impression that the country is okay.

While this all happening, spring-summer political season slowly but steadily goes to an end. Due to the silent protests, it is already delayed. Population is falling into the struggle for the harvest, which in the current crisis situation is equivalent to the struggle for survival. Authorities and their opponents are summing up the results trying to find out who won the first phase of the "War for Belarus."

Tactical victory

The results of the May-June political battles are highly complex,  but at first glance, the success of the authorities is clear:

- The republic's leadership managed to keep the population from social protest in the most critical moment of economic crisis (April - May - early June) when there was a real feeling that the notorious Belarusian economic model is finished. Of course, distracting effect was reached by the April terrorist attack in perhaps the most critical moment of the crisis;

- The authorities find the way out of the economic crisis - the "shock without reform" - more intuitive than as a result of deliberate political and economic measures. But only now, taking into account what happened before (December 2010) we begin to understand Alexander Lukashenko’s enormous plan. It is a gigantic froud. Belarus president in November - December 2010 simply “bought” the power for another five years for "funny money", sliced ​​newspapers. Everything turned out as in a movie - people were given a currency "doll." And Lukashenko "paid off" his fourth presidential term, or rather "bought" it by defectively raising the average salary up to $ 500, but after three or four months, took them in a rough way – he simply robbed people through devaluation. In principle, the Belarusian head of state could have risen the salaries up to $ 1000 in December by adding few more freight cars with “money” that are not secured by foreign exchange reserves and have a real cost lower than actual paper, which was used to make money bills.

Belarusian people are now paying for counterfeiting of Belarusian authorities. The economy is really becoming healthier in a "natural way" - a sharp decline in living standards and increased exploitation of workers. But in general, the government is more or less save for now. People got used to the prices, "black" market exchange, etc. Social explosion will not happen. The scam turned out to be successful.

- After getting a loan from Crisis fund of EEC, i.e., in fact, from Russia, the Belarusian authorities immediately started usual anti-Russian propaganda, began evasive action from the real economic reforms, which were the basis for lending by the Russian Federation. The official Minsk is trying once again to crank over the last decade "shuttle" operation "East-West" and to get a loan from the IMF in the coming months. The crisis in Russian-Belarusian relations in this case is really important for Minsk, as the main loan conditions from the West. Naturally, in this respect Alexander Lukashenko is risking, but we also cannot say he will not be successful.

The Belarusian president has found major pain "point" of the West long ago. It is the fear of new soviet-type union on the post-Soviet space. Relaying on this basic genetic fear of the West, Lukashenko will always have a free hand. A largely accepted view that after December 19, 2010 the West will not have dialogue with Lukashenko is true only in a short run. As soon as the Belarusian president will say that the republic's sovereignty is under threat from Moscow, as soon as he will start breaking  the Customs Union and Common Economic Space, then everything - the Decembrists, political prisoners, as well as security forces in civilian clothes, etc. will be forgiven. The political price of the issue is not comparable: on the one hand - three dozen of people behind bars, on the other hand - the second in the world nuclear capacity. So in this sector everything not lost for Lukashenko;

- The authorities stopped a "revolution in social networks." It must be recognized. On the other hand, they have no choice. They could not not respond at all, knowing that in this case, the escalation of the protests would be inevitable, as well as open confrontation. Therefore it was decided to stifle protests at the start ... In the end, the number of people joining is increasing very slowly, activities continue to be local in nature, and the participants are mainly youth. The authorities so far managed to restrain this "dam".

Apparently, the organizers of the protest have not planed everything, not everything was predicted. The method is working, they gained an invaluable experience in how to confront the authorities, but now this is not enough. "The network revolution" is clearly at an impasse. The authorities feel it and hope that gradually, everyone will understand it uselessness, protests will not attract people's attention and everything will be as fine as before.

As we see, the tactical plan of Belarusian authorities is not that bad. The republic's leadership clings to power and there is no force capable to take this power from Lukashenko. At the same time, we cannot say that the authorities have prepared in huge defense lines and supplies. Everything is spent.

Strategic defeat

Against this background, there are questions to be answered. What's next? On whom and on what the authorities can rely on? Where they will get reserves? 

Indeed, social protests are not massive. Although there is no doubt that there will be local disasters. The authorities are like the fire brigade, busy with closing people’s mouths. It works in the enterprises of the capital, but such a policy cannot work for ever without “new products from printing press”.  Consequently, in a few months we will see a new devaluation. Everything goes in a circle and the circle is tightening.

Distract the population from the socio-economic problems with new terrorist attacks will not work because the government has deferred an investigation of the April bombing at the hands of Vladimir Lukashenko and his "gang", sweeping consequences of the traces. Now everything has been done to make people forget about it. As it was said in the article "It’s time to sum it up" of May 8, 2011: " Without a doubt that is a conspiracy. If the Belarusian president will join this plot, then he becomes a terrorist. If he will hand over the customer's justice, it is unclear how he could continue to run the country ... in fact the head of state has no choice. In any case he is to answer for everything... Now, if the head of state is aware of commissioner (which is still not a fact!), then it would be desirable that the terrorist attack would be somehow forgotten.» (http://www.politoboz.com/content/pora-podvesti-itog). Indeed, people have already forgotten about the 15 dead and hundreds of wounded. Real terrorists are free, and they even appear on screen of the Belarusian television. Incidentally, the entire Belarusian establishment, including Lukashenko, is well aware of who is the real organizer of the terrorist war against their own people, and they calmly shake terrorists’ hands.

Moscow knows about it as well... So a very serious and principled reasons are involved in the new round of Russian-Belarusian crisis. We will return to this hot topic...

Again turning back to economic issues, it is worth recalling that the Belarusian authorities are captured again by their own illusions about their ability to beat the economic crisis. Indeed, the inertial scenario, or "shock without reform" is a real scenario for overcoming the crisis of the Belarusian economy ... But the economy will look like a disabled, out-of-operating - without arms or legs. Lack of reform in the Republic condemns the de-industrialization, which in fact is already well underway. The economy is shrinking, it soon will not fit into integration projects.

In fact, there is no problem with privatization, the lack of which is one of the few points of complete agreement between the government and the opposition. But without it Belarusian industrial assets will continue their deterioration, as there will be no investment, the products will be exported at dumped prices, the creation of some international corporations with the public sector will remain in the dreams of M. Myasnikovich. All of these processes are already underway and there are neither policies nor resources to stop them. If this is the choice of the Belarusian people and Lukashenko only voicing it, then the economic crisis in Belarus is like a cancerous tumor that cannot be treated. Leadership of the republic will continue to scour the globe in search of cheap money and resources to live on charity and alms, hoping that the next tranche will help keep the former "prosperity", and will stubbornly refuse to notice that the country is turning into an economic "black hole".

Beggars

Wednesday, July 6, the author of this lines found a batch of promotional leaflets of Minsk casino "Victoria" in a compartment of the train "Moscow - Minsk,". It turned out that this "good" lies on the tables of each compartment of the corporate train. In general, that criminal filth that Russia, with great difficulty, literally scrapes off the streets of their cities, Belarus attracts and reproduces actively. There is no doubt that soon, with the deepening crisis in the Belarusian economy, in compartments in trains to Belarus with advertising of Minsk casino will be business cards of brothels in Minsk. Money does not smell ...

In the world there are many countries living at the expense of female prostitution and criminal activity. Apparently, Belarus is joining their number. Against this background, it will be difficult for Alexander Lukashenko to promote the Belarusian experience in management the economy and hint at the special moral and ethical benefits of the Belarusian economic policy, that he has been actively doing in the last fifteen years.

Moscow is following the economic crisis in the country attentively. There is no doubt that in this case, Minsk will be forced to account for every penny. Time of  perpetual and unrestricted grants and subsidies have long ended. In the autumn the need for money to double - on the eve of the heating season.

Meanwhile, the second tranche of the Anti-Crisis Fund EEC is under threat. Given the fact that the Belarusian side continues to operate on the principle of "We are the most cunning," and after the first $ 800 million, immediately tried to strike at Russia with anti-Russian multi-purpose format campaign, then Minsk can hardly count on the next $ 400 million.

A new wave of hatred towards Moscow, the Kremlin, Russia and the Russians swept the Belarusian media, was a completely coordinated and well thought-out operation. If you pay attention to the BT broadcast "Focus" on June 26, largely focused against Dmitry Medvedev, the feeling is that Lukashenka has already joined the Russian election campaign of 2012 (first goal). The second goal: "to throw a switch" from the real culprits of the economic crisis to Russia, which is an unbreakable tradition of the Belarusian political market. In this case, the Belarusian media space continues to promote the version of the plot of the Russian oligarchs and the Russian media, "thriving" the Belarusian economy from the distance in order to capture the Belarusian industrial assets (third goal). The last accusation is so serious that any movement of the Belarusian authorities to the real structural reforms now looks as a crime against their own people.

In general, even with all this the situation could be acceptable, as there is no problem for Russia in this case, if only Moscow did not know about the stunning hypocrisy of the Belarusian side. Today they speak of Russia as of a hell child, and tomorrow will ask for a penny. It is worth mentioning that there are legendary professionals from the porch in Belarusian government. Semashko, for example. In fact, last week, Alexander Lukashenko, facing tough Russia's approach toward payments for electricity, suddenly wailed: “Honestly speaking I cannot call this actions as partner actions, not to mention the allied or sister relationship”. (07.07.11, Shklov). It is clear that public mudslinging at a neighboring country, insulting its leaders, who have just gave a significant loan on special term is the height of propriety. And then Belta is surprised why Russian government haven`t send greeting to "Slavonic Bazaar".

No telegraph in the piggery

It is clear that it is very hard for Belarusian president to accept the idea that his country is in a huge economic dependence from its eastern neighbor, but at least denying of this obvious fact has to be well planned. Meanwhile, on July 4, 2011 Alexander Lukashenko during his meeting with Secretary of State of the Union State Mr Borodin said that Russia is actually subsidized by Belarus: "I wonder: why Russian leadership does not understand - when they say that they are subsidizing us, lend us and so on and so on ... We used to be an assembly point of the Union, now we are the same but for Russia ... We consume not only resources from them, but we create a finished product here, we consume about 60% of components from Russia. Over 15 million people employed in Russia involved in it... so they (the Kremlin) do not realize that by supporting the economy of Belarus, they support Russian enterprises". Propagandistic nonsense about the "assembly area" has long been a joke, and Belarusian President made a contribution, stating in May that in a secret format full-fledged space industry in the country is constructed, which already produces satellites for other countries. All this is pretty funny. But in the latter case, we encounter some phenomenon lies: how can you say that 17% of the population of Russia (87.12 million) offer a complete set Belarusian economy, which is smaller than the Russian one in 40 (forty) times? One usually lie that desperately only when he is hopeless and weak ...

Pyrrhic victory

The authorities have recaptured the first onslaught of "network revolution." But the political and image losses are enormous and irreplaceable.

First of all, the protest had a huge impact on the behavior of the authorities themselves. For the first time in recent years, the authorities were forced to "dance to the tune of someone else." They were preparing for each Wednesday, advancing security forces, organizing harassment, etc.

The threat of protests forced turned the parade on July 3 in format of some occupational activity – only authorized visitors, every-third in the crowd – member of security forces, Alexander Lukashenko speech ended with a graveyard silence. It is worth recalling that it was a parade, government was demonstrating its strength ... For a full picture, only watch towers and guard dogs were necessary. You never know ... The authorities not able to prevent the action; they can only react on it, i.e. defend themselves.

The authorities have failed to use Internet technology to their advantage. Literally in the last few days they began to use the network, but only in the form of provocation, traps, rumors, which means a negative format. The authorities failed to offer an ideological alternative to the "network revolution," were unable to create a pro-Lukashenko Bynet. They proved to be fruitless and terribly objectionable in this ocean of information. All this reflects the most important conclusion of spring-summer season - the ideological bankruptcy of the Lukashenko regime. No ideas, no slogans, no ideology, but there is a fear of losing power and horror of is done already.

Hence is the format of the confrontation. Fear has forced the authorities to use people in civilian clothes who grab everyone, without looking, without showing identification, without explaining why, etc. In fact, these people are no different from criminals. You can say that gangs are operating on the streets of the Belarusian cities. The authorities trying to keep control of the country by terrorist methods.

This is all very serious and dangerous, especially for the authorities themselves. Terror in response to civil actions, not only has resurrected the images from the history of fascism, but they openly delegitimize the power. Gestapo is back in business in Belarus.

After all, if the government is so afraid of their people and therefore attacks, it is illegal power. This clears the way for their opponents. Already, people are collecting info on those acting brutally on the streets against protestors. Minor sabotage became a popular form of anti-government movement.

It is clear that the "Gestapo" will try to remain incognito. The fact that they periodically in presence of arrested, as if by accident, make statements about their "Russian" origin, says only that these people are well aware of criminality of their actions and try to confuse the tracks ...

This is not the first time when Belarusian security forces pose themselves as Russians.  4-5 years ago a prominent Belarusian opposition leaders (from nationalist wing) were captured twice by some members of the Belarusian secret services (as if by accident, they mentioned that they were Russians). Just recall the Russian flags decorating the Belarusian riot police cars, etc. In late June, there were also such attempts. This is a very clumsy job ...

On-street "Gestapo" in plain clothes completely destroyed any respect for the law enforcement agencies in the Belarusian society. All this has proven that the power is isolated from society and dialogue with it is tantamount to treason. Now, dialog with them is the same as peace with Hitler in 1945.

Videos on world television channels showing how some people on the sidewalks of Belarusian cities grab passers-by, have created a terrible image of the Belarusian authorities. Alexander Lukashenko is seen as Pol Pot. That makes the country a member of the failed states club, where people are controlled by open and secret terror.

Of course, the authorities are mad with fear. Significantly, that they fear several hundreds of young people who often cannot defend themselves or a friend. The author has been shocked seeing this scene - the girl being dragged in front of the guys, and they were still claping their hands. Of course, Belarus - Russia is not ...

And yet, "Network Revolution" has not taken place. And it could not take place because the method cannot  replace a full-fledged idea. There is no idea that will ​​lift  millions, yet. Leaders also not yet in sight. "The network revolution" was in demand during rising of popular resistance, as the most harmless form of protest. The authorities nearly killed the form of protest, not content. Contents - denying the Lukashenko regime has remained and even expanded and strengthened. Consequently, by the autumn we can expect other, more rigid and probably even cruel a form of protest of course, if something extraordinary will not happened during the end of summer. It is obvious that the country does nothing to stop the escalating violence and political confrontation. Let's see what will happen in the second phase of the autumn’s "Struggle for Belarus."

A. Suzdaltsev, Moscow, 10.07.11